Whither North Korea?

Whither North Korea?

 

                                                                                            

Pundits here in Korea and abroad have tried to explain away the recent trial and execution of Jang Song-thaek.  But it is doubtful that they had access to all the facts on which to base their opinions.  All they had was the information reported by North Korea’s official mass media, and there is no way of knowing how much of that was factually correct.  This situation reminds me of an old saying: “Those who talk don’t know, those who know don’t talk.”

 

So we do not really know how Jang’s purge was instigated.  Either it was done on Kim Jong-un’s own initiative or Kim was forced to do it under pressure from Jang’s political rivals.  In either case, Kim could have removed Jang quietly.  Instead, he chose to purge Jang publicly in an extremely humiliating and cruel way.  By so doing, he may have wanted to demonstrate that any challenge, real or imagined, to his power would not be tolerated.

 

In my view, Kim was rash and his action was miscalculated.  As Jang was his own uncle, Kim’s callousness would have shocked and disgusted sensible North Koreans who had been brought up under Confucian tradition.  As such, Kim may have weakened his position as a leader instead of bolstering it. Kim may never know how the public truly feels about him because he is surrounded by his cronies who would do and say anything to please him.  More likely than not, he has no loyal following and even his cronies will surely desert him if and when they feel there are no benefits to gain by supporting Kim.

 

The economic situation of North Korea is getting worse with each passing year. Kim must be intelligent enough to know that to revitalize his country’s economy, far-reaching measures - such as the opening-up of the country and market-oriented economic reforms - need to be taken.  But he also knows that the implementation of such measures would certainly precipitate his downfall.  So he is in a bind.  Such being the case, there is no light at the end of the tunnel, and North Korea is sitting on a ticking time bomb.   

 

We all remember how South Vietnam fell in 1975.  When American forces pulled out of South Vietnam, they left behind all their mighty weapons.  As a result, South Vietnamese soldiers were better armed than their counterparts in North Vietnam.  However, South Vietnamese soldiers lacked the will to fight when North Vietnamese army launched an all-out attack.  They all threw away their weapons and fled, and nobody would or could stop them.  They saw no reason for risking their lives to defend their corrupt and inept government in Saigon.

 

The Saigon government crumbled like a house of cards because it lacked public support. The same thing is likely to happen in North Korea. Apparently North Koreans know that they are being ruled by coercion and deception.  So in the event that a catastrophic political crisis befalls the ruling clique, nobody will lift a finger to help them.  Everybody will be for himself. 

 

North Korea is doomed politically and economically, and the country is bound to collapse eventually.  When it does, what will happen to North Korea?  There are a few credible scenarios.  Obviously the best scenario is for us to take over North Korea.  To achieve this, we should spare no effort to win North Koreans over to our side.  If North Koreans unanimously opt for reunification with South Korea, the many obstacles that are strewn in that path can be overcome.

 

The Korea Times

January 2014